Weather: A hot and dry week by November standards

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ITHACA, NY – November is generally one of the cloudiest months in Ithaca, besides being the usual meteorological onset of winter, as temperatures start to get cold enough for the threat of a lake effect. or coastal snowstorms. However, this week, luck is smiling in the land of gorges, with generally dry conditions with plenty of sunshine and temperatures well above normal before a little chill next weekend.

Graphic courtesy of the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

Your weekly weather forecast

Tthere is no doubt about it – october was humid and hot by our northeast standards. In fact, according to the Northeast Regional Climate Center, each of its 35 premier weather stations, from Maine to West Virginia, recorded the top 10 for the hottest October on record, with twenty of them recording the hottest top 3 and six with their hottest October on record – Scranton, Harrisburg, Williamsport, Newark, Dulles Airport and Syracuse, which averaged a staggering 7.7 ° F above sea level normal. For as high as it sounds, the temperature drops so quickly in october that it’s like having two more weeks at the end of September, which isn’t bad after all.

At the Dryden Game Farm Road weather station, the average October temperature was 6.7 ° F above normal for an October average temperature of 55.7 ° F, which is good enough for the fourth hottest in 128 years of local weather record. In case you were wondering, the three hottest years were 1947 (57.7 ° F), 1900 (57.2 ° F) and 2007 (56.2 ° F) respectively.

This was largely achieved through nightly troughs warmer than daytime highs, as the nightly troughs were 8.2 ° F in October, which for many areas resulted in hard frost much later than daytime highs. usual (for the record, the wildflowers in my garden did not die from the frost until this past week, when they normally meet their disappearance around mid-October). Game Farm Road, which is a bit cooler than Ithaca’s urban core, didn’t even drop below zero in October. The last time this happened was in 1971.

Graphic courtesy of the Northeast Regional Climate Center

The main reasons for the warm nights were clouds and humidity – it rained heavily in October, as evidenced by the flooding at the end of the month. Locally, the total was 7.35 ″, nearly twice the normal 3.70 ″ of rain. It was the fourth wettest on record, behind 1981 (8.36), 1955 (8.15) and 1943 (7.49), all of which also experienced major flooding.

As the precipitation data tended to disappear, there was more variation in the regional map. 28 of 35 top-notch weather stations were above normal, with five having one of the first ten wettest October, including Syracuse, with its third wettest October on record. However, whether we were in northern New England or southern Pennsylvania, October was drier than normal.

After this very hot and humid October, November has cooled to more seasonal levels, in fact it starts on the cold and dry side. However, milder temperatures this coming week are expected to bring global temperatures closer to if not above normal, with little further precipitation expected as Tompkins County attempts to dry out.

Your weekly weather forecast

It’s a cold, calm night in Tompkins County as high pressure over the Appalachians continues to keep skies clear and limit the westward expansion of the coastal low cloud shield. This minimum also prevents the maximum from progressing eastward, leaving it largely in place for the next two days. Expect a generally clear night this evening with lows of 30 to 30 in the city of Ithaca and along Cayuga Lake, with 20s at higher elevations and in outlying areas.

Monday will be a pleasant day as the high pressure is building up. At the back of its clockwise flow, winds will blow from the southwest and temperatures will warm up considerably until the mid-1960s to peaks with mostly sunny skies. Some clouds may accumulate off the Great Lakes late Monday night through Tuesday morning, but they will remain dry and partly cloudy with lows in the upper 30s and lows of 40 closer to the shores of the Lake.

Tuesday will be another pleasant day as the high pressure remains centered over the southern Appalachians, with a few passing clouds, thicker as the day progresses, a more westerly wind and peaks in the years. 60. A weak thunderstorm system is expected to pass north of the high pressure Tuesday evening through Wednesday, which is likely to usher in a weak cold front. Expect mostly cloudy skies overnight with a few rain showers after midnight, with lows in the mid-1940s.

Any remaining showers in and around Tompkins County will dissipate by sunrise Wednesday, and the day will welcome waning clouds, with mostly sunny skies in the late afternoon and highs in the upper 50s. Clouds will rebuild on Wednesday evening as the high presses in ocean moisture and envelops it in flow, but it will remain dry with overnight lows Wednesday into the upper 1930s.

A warm front will pass through Ithaca and Tompkins County before a powerful low pressure storm system forms over the Upper Midwest. It will be dry and windy during the day, with a strong southerly breeze as the anti-clockwise low and clockwise high operate in tandem, this which results in mostly cloudy skies and highs in the 60’s. Thursday night will start dry, but the sky will become overcast and rain showers are expected after midnight. Rain and heavy cloud cover will maintain overnight lows in the mid-1950s at 20 degrees above normal.

A smaller secondary low pressure area is likely to separate from the very large storm over the Upper Midwest, complicating the forecast for Friday. It looks like Tompkins County will remain in the warm area during the day, allowing highs into the 60s with near overcast skies and spells of rain during the day. The rain will continue overnight from Friday to Saturday before the cold front, which will not sweep until dawn on Saturday. Friday’s lows will be in the mid to high 40s.

Saturday and Sunday will be cooler, especially Sunday as cold air pours into the area behind the cold front. Models show near-freezing temperatures all the way to Arkansas and Tennessee during the week, a storm of this size and strength can draw a lot of cold arctic air. However, in the northeast we will be further away from the huge but weaker low that will slow northeast toward Hudson Bay, and the air will have moderate. Expect choppy, mostly cloudy days on Saturdays and Sundays, with highs in the mid-50s on Saturdays and above 40s on Sundays. The lows will be in the mid-1930s. There is no real possibility of snowfall in the forecast for this week.

Graphics courtesy of the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Extended perspectives

The mid-range model shows near to slightly below normal temperatures for mid-November and near normal precipitation. The simple explanation is this gigantic hollow that will develop in the middle of the week; entering Canada towards Hudson Bay, the back of its counterclockwise flow will channel cold air south and southeast, into the deep south. The northeast is spared for at least this period because it is too far east and the storm will move further and further north as it moves east. Meanwhile, the southwestern desert can expect warmer and drier conditions than normal.


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